Eli Lilly's market capitalization closed above $1 trillion for the first time on November 21, 2025, at a share price of about $1,059.70, making it the first pharmaceutical company to reach that threshold and overtaking Novo Nordisk in market valueCITE:E1. Novo Nordisk's market capitalization, by contrast, had fallen below $200 billion by the same date, a decline of roughly $400 billion from its mid-2024 peakCITE:E1. Lilly's tirzepatide — sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound — had also overtaken Merck's Keytruda to become the world's best-selling drug as of that date, though rankings by market value remain highly volatileCITE:E1.
Two tirzepatide-based products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, generated more than half of Eli Lilly's total revenue in fiscal year 2025CITE:E2. Mounjaro, approved for diabetes, brought in $22.965 billion, up 99% year over year, while Zepbound, approved for weight loss, brought in $13.542 billion, up 175% year over yearCITE:E2. Combined, the two products generated approximately $36.5 billion against Lilly's total FY2025 revenue of $65.179 billion — about 56% of the company's salesCITE:E2.
Novo Nordisk remains a large company by revenue but has guided toward a sales contraction in 2026CITE:E3. The company reported FY2025 net sales of DKK 309.064 billion (about $48 billion), of which its semaglutide diabetes drug Ozempic contributed DKK 127.089 billion (about $20 billion)CITE:E3. For 2026, Novo Nordisk's own guidance calls for sales to decline between 5% and 13% at constant exchange rates, which the company attributes to pricing pressure and competition from later entrants to the GLP-1 marketCITE:E3.
Forecasts for the global incretin market by 2030 diverge sharply depending on how the market is definedCITE:E4. J.P. Morgan's research projects the global incretin market, which includes GLP-1 drugs, could reach as much as $200 billion by 2030CITE:E4. Goldman Sachs, using a narrower definition limited to anti-obesity drugs, estimates a smaller figure of about $95 billionCITE:E4. Both figures are forward-looking projections rather than realized revenueCITE:E4.
Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, has posted late-stage weight-loss results that could extend the company's lead if approvedCITE:E5. In the Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 trial, the highest tested dose of 36 mg produced an average weight loss of 12.4% (about 27.3 pounds) over 72 weeks, compared with 0.9% for placeboCITE:E5. Lilly has filed for FDA approval of orforglipron for the obesity indication, though the filing does not guarantee approvalCITE:E5. An oral formulation, unlike current injectable GLP-1 drugs, could lower manufacturing and distribution barriersCITE:E5.
Semaglutide's benefits have been shown to extend beyond weight loss to cardiovascular risk reductionCITE:E6. In the SELECT trial, which enrolled 17,604 overweight or obese participants with a history of cardiovascular disease, semaglutide reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) by 20%, with a hazard ratio of 0.80 and an event rate of 6.5% versus 8.0% for placeboCITE:E6. Based on these results, the FDA added a cardiovascular risk reduction indication to the Wegovy label in 2024CITE:E6.
| Metric | Eli Lilly | Novo Nordisk |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap milestone (Nov 21, 2025) | Closed above $1 trillion (first pharma company)CITE:E1 | Fell below $200 billion, down ~$400B from 2024 mid-year peakCITE:E1 |
| FY2025 revenue | $65.179 billion totalCITE:E2 | DKK 309.064 billion (~$48 billion)CITE:E3 |
| Flagship GLP-1 sales | Mounjaro $22.965B (+99%); Zepbound $13.542B (+175%)CITE:E2 | Ozempic DKK 127.089 billion (~$20 billion)CITE:E3 |
| GLP-1 share of revenue | ~56% of total revenueCITE:E2 | Not disclosed in evidence |
| 2026 guidance | Not disclosed in evidence | -5% to -13% at constant exchange ratesCITE:E3 |
Eli Lilly's climb past a $1 trillion market cap and Novo Nordisk's shift to a guided 2026 sales decline of 5% to 13% reflect the same underlying transition: tirzepatide-based Mounjaro and Zepbound now generate about 56% of Lilly's revenue, while Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, once the category's lead product, faces the pricing and competitive pressure the company itself cites for its own guidance. The gap between J.P. Morgan's $200 billion and Goldman Sachs' $95 billion forecasts for the 2030 market shows that even as the two companies' current results diverge, the ceiling for the entire GLP-1 category remains unsettled. Lilly's orforglipron filing and semaglutide's FDA-added cardiovascular indication point to two separate paths for further expansion — easier oral dosing and medical indications beyond obesity — but neither is confirmed until regulators act.
Eli Lilly's market capitalization closed above $1 trillion for the first time on November 21, 2025, at a share price of about $1,059.
Two tirzepatide-based products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, generated more than half of Eli Lilly's total revenue in fiscal year 2025CITE:E2.
Novo Nordisk remains a large company by revenue but has guided toward a sales contraction in 2026CITE:E3. The company reported FY2025 net sales of DKK 309.
Forecasts for the global incretin market by 2030 diverge sharply depending on how the market is definedCITE:E4. J.P.
The market-cap crossover is a lagging indicator; the number that matters going forward is Novo Nordisk's actual 2026 revenue against its own guided range of -5% to -13%, since that guidance is the company's own admission that Ozempic's growth phase has slowed. Lilly's 56% revenue concentration in two tirzepatide products cuts both ways: it explains the trillion-dollar valuation, but it also means Lilly's near-term trajectory now leans heavily on a single regulatory decision — whether the FDA approves orforglipron for obesity. Given the 12.4% weight-loss result already posted in the ATTAIN-1 trial, that filing outcome, not the next market-cap headline, is the indicator worth tracking.
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