According to a UBS report cited by TechNews and Cnyes, Micron's (美光) standard DRAM gross margin is projected to climb from roughly 44%-50% in 2025 to 89%-91% by mid-2026 and 92% by year-end, overtaking HBM margins of 56%-70% over the same period. UBS attributes the reversal to HBM's heavier wafer and packaging demands squeezing standard-memory supply, plus simultaneous AI-server demand for both HBM and DDR5.
Micron's Standard DRAM Margin Trajectory and Outlook
According to a UBS report cited by TechNews, Micron's (美光) standard DRAM gross margin ran roughly 44% to 50% throughout 2025, then "surged to 80%" in February 2026 [E1]. It kept climbing to 89% and 91% across May through August 2026, with UBS projecting a year-end 2026 figure of 92% [E1]. TechNews reports UBS's further outlook has the margin peaking at 93% to 95% in 2027 and staying above 93% for most of 2028 [E2]. Cnyes, citing the same UBS data, reports an almost identical path — about 44% in 2025 rising to 50%, then a jump to 80% in early 2026, with 2027 potentially reaching 95% and 2028 holding around 93% for most of the year [E6].
Why Micron's HBM Margin Growth Has Been More Modest
By contrast, TechNews reports UBS pegs Micron's HBM gross margin at about 56% to 63% in 2025, rising to a range of 63% to 70% in 2026, and reaching an estimated 75% to 78% in 2027 [E3]. Cnyes' account of the same UBS estimate matches these figures exactly — 56% to 63% in 2025, 63% to 70% in 2026, and 75% to 78% in 2027 [E7]. Both outlets' numbers show HBM margins expanding at a noticeably slower pace than the standard DRAM trajectory described above.
Two Key Factors Behind Standard DRAM's Margin Overtake
TechNews reports UBS points to two drivers behind standard DRAM's margin overtaking HBM. First is a manufacturing-difficulty gap: HBM requires more wafer stacking and far more complex packaging steps, which consumes production-line capacity and squeezes standard-memory output, constraining its supply [E4]. Second is a "dual demand surge" — AI servers require not only GPU-dedicated HBM but also large volumes of standard DDR5 to support CPU operation [E4]. Set against the trajectories above, where standard DRAM margins moved from roughly 44%-50% to 89%-92% within about a year while HBM margins moved only from 56%-63% to 63%-70% [E1][E3], UBS's supply-constraint and dual-demand explanation lines up with the sharper standard-DRAM curve.
How Much Has the Margin Gap Widened?
Cnyes reports that, per UBS, the gross-margin gap between general DRAM and HBM "could widen to 17 to 20 percentage points" by 2027 [E8]. That estimate is consistent with the separately reported 2027 figures: standard DRAM at 93%-95% [E2][E6] against HBM at 75%-78% [E3][E7], a spread that falls within the 17-20 point range Cnyes cites.
| Year | Standard DRAM Margin | HBM Margin |
|---|
| 2025 | ~44%-50% | ~56%-63% |
| Feb 2026 | 80% | — |
| May-Aug 2026 | 89%-91% | 63%-70% |
| End 2026 (forecast) | 92% | — |
| 2027 (forecast) | 93%-95% | 75%-78% |
| 2028 (forecast) | >93% (most of year) | — |
Sources: TechNews [E1][E2][E3]; Cnyes [E6][E7][E8].
Micron's HBM Shipment and Competitive Position
TechNews reports UBS forecasts Micron's HBM quarterly shipments growing from 0.1 exabytes (EB) in early 2025 to 0.29 EB by the end of 2026 and 0.43 EB by the end of 2027, within a global HBM market UBS estimates at 2.1 EB total [E5]. Cnyes reports the same shipment growth path from 0.1 EB in early 2025 to 0.43 EB by end-2027 [E9]. On market share, TechNews reports UBS expects Micron's global HBM share to reach 22% to 23% by end-2026, dip to 18% during 2027, then recover to 21% by year-end, while its standard-memory market share is projected to hold steady at 23% to 24% [E5]. Cnyes adds that Micron faces competition from SK Hynix (SK海力士) and Samsung Electronics (三星電子) in the HBM4 market, and that if Micron shifts more capacity toward HBM, it would further tighten standard DRAM supply and push up that product's price and profitability — meaning Micron must balance HBM capacity expansion against standard-DRAM margin gains [E11].
| Metric | Early 2025 | End 2026 | 2027 |
|---|
| HBM quarterly shipments | 0.1 EB | 0.29 EB | 0.43 EB (year-end) |
| Micron global HBM share | — | 22%-23% | dips to 18%, recovers to 21% |
| Micron standard-memory share | — | 23%-24% (stable) | 23%-24% (stable) |
Sources: TechNews [E5]; Cnyes [E9].
The Narrowing Window for Memory Makers' Pricing Power
Cnyes reports a separate finding that memory manufacturers currently hold about $38 billion in customer prepayments, and that their bargaining power is expected to weaken starting in 2029 as market leverage shifts toward customers — leaving what Cnyes describes as a high-margin window of "only 2 to 3 years" [E10].
What This Means
The figures reported by TechNews and Cnyes describe a margin structure moving in opposite directions for Micron's two product lines: standard DRAM climbing from the 44%-50% range to a projected 92%-95% by 2026-2027, while HBM rises more gradually from 56%-63% to 75%-78% over the same period [E1][E2][E3][E6][E7] — a gap Cnyes reports could reach 17-20 percentage points by 2027 [E8]. UBS's explanation, as reported by TechNews, ties this directly to HBM's packaging complexity squeezing standard-memory supply while AI servers simultaneously demand both product types [E4]. At the same time, Cnyes reports Micron's own shipment and share data show HBM volume still growing quarter over quarter — from 0.1 EB to a projected 0.43 EB — even as competition from SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics in HBM4 persists [E5][E9][E11], meaning Micron continues to invest in the lower-margin product line even as it profits more from the higher-margin one. Cnyes separately reports that industry-wide bargaining leverage tied to the $38 billion in prepayments is expected to hold only until 2029 [E10], a timeframe that sits just beyond UBS's 2028 standard-DRAM margin forecast reported by both outlets [E2][E6].