TLT closed at $81.35 on August 17, its lowest level since June 2004, after the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.311% and the 10-year reached 4.724%. Wells Fargo's Luis Alvarado ties the move to a widening federal deficit and AI-driven borrowing, even as BlackRock data shows $6.4 billion flowed into the ETF in the third quarter.
How far has TLT fallen after hitting its lowest level since 2004?
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) dropped 0.8% to close at $81.35 on August 17, its lowest closing level since June 14, 2004CITE:E1. The ETF is now down 6.6% year-to-date, its worst same-period performance since 2022CITE:E2. A separate report corroborated the same closing price and the 22-year-low milestoneCITE:E9.
How high have long-term Treasury yields climbed?
The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 2 basis points to 4.724% on August 17CITE:E3, while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, its highest level since June 2007CITE:E4. The U.S. Treasury Department's most recent 30-year bond auction priced at 5.216%, the highest yield since 2001CITE:E6.
| Instrument | Yield / Price | Note |
|---|
| TLT closing price | $81.35 | Lowest since June 14, 2004CITE:E1 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.724% | Aug 17, 2026CITE:E3 |
| 30-year Treasury yield | 5.311% | Highest since June 2007CITE:E4 |
| New 30-year Treasury auction | 5.216% | Highest since 2001CITE:E6 |
| Alphabet 30-year corporate bond | ~6.4% | Matures Aug 2056CITE:E7 |
How are the federal deficit and AI borrowing boom hitting Treasury demand?
Luis Alvarado, co-head of global fixed income at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the widening federal deficit combined with a borrowing boom in the AI sector has reduced investor appetite for long-term Treasuries and TLTCITE:E5.
Why has corporate debt become more attractive than Treasuries?
Alphabet's recently issued 30-year corporate bond, maturing in August 2056, carries a yield near 6.4%, well above the roughly 5.3% yield on comparable 30-year TreasuriesCITE:E7.
What does TLT's $6.4 billion third-quarter inflow say about investor positioning?
BlackRock-compiled data shows TLT recorded net inflows of $6.4 billion in the third quarter, with investors using bond ETFs to diversify their portfoliosCITE:E8.
What this means
TLT's slide to a 22-year-low closing price coincides with the 30-year Treasury yield sitting at its highest level since 2007 and a new Treasury auction pricing at the highest yield since 2001CITE:E1CITE:E4CITE:E6. Alvarado frames this as the federal deficit and AI-sector borrowing competing for capital that once went to long-term TreasuriesCITE:E5, a dynamic also visible in Alphabet's corporate bond pricing roughly a full percentage point above comparable TreasuriesCITE:E7. Yet BlackRock's data shows $6.4 billion still flowed into TLT in the third quarterCITE:E8 — falling prices and rising inflows appearing in the same fund at the same time.