TrendForce cut its 2026 global TV shipment forecast to a 0.6% annual decline, totaling 194.81 million units, after 2025 shipments already fell 0.8% to roughly 196.20 million units. Even as DRAM's share of TV bill-of-materials cost jumped from 2.5-3% to 6-7% on a more-than-fourfold rise in DDR4 contract prices, TrendForce raised its Mini LED TV penetration forecast to 10%, with TCL positioned to exceed 30% share in that segment.
How Are Global TV Shipments Declining From 2025 Into 2026, and How Large Is the Downward Revision?
TrendForce lowered its full-year 2026 global TV shipment forecast from a 0.3% annual decline to a 0.6% decline, cutting the total to 194.81 million unitsCITE:E1. That follows a 2025 in which global TV shipments already fell 0.8% year over year to nearly 196.20 million unitsCITE:E2. The same 2026 revision — from -0.3% to -0.6%, at 194.81 million units — was separately reportedCITE:E9, and the 2025 baseline of -0.8% to about 196.20 million units was corroboratedCITE:E10.
| Period | Prior forecast | Reported figure | Units |
|---|
| 2025 (actual) | — | -0.8% YoY | ~196.20 millionCITE:E2CITE:E10 |
| 2026 (prior forecast) | -0.3% YoY | — | — |
| 2026 (revised forecast) | — | -0.6% YoY | 194.81 millionCITE:E1CITE:E9 |
How Does the Q1 2026 Forecast Compare With the Full-Year Outlook, and How Does the Rest of the Year Deteriorate?
TrendForce projects first-quarter 2026 global TV shipments will rise 2% year over year to 46.51 million units, even as it cut the full-year forecast to a 0.6% declineCITE:E3. The same Q1 2026 figure — 46.51 million units, up 2% year over year — appears in a separate reportCITE:E11. Set against the full-year total of 194.81 million units at a 0.6% annual declineCITE:E1, the Q1 growth implies the remaining three quarters must contract enough to pull the full-year figure into negative territory; the evidence does not break out quarter-by-quarter figures for the second through fourth quarters.
How Is the Memory-Price Surge Reshaping TV Cost Structures, and How Has DRAM's BOM Share Changed?
DRAM's share of TV bill-of-materials cost climbed from 2.5-3% before this memory price cycle to 6-7% after recent price adjustmentsCITE:E6. The increase was driven by 4GB DDR4, the memory commonly used in 4K TVs, whose contract price rose more than fourfold over the past year and is forecast to climb more than 60% quarter over quarter in the first quarter of 2026CITE:E5. The same DDR4 price trajectory and the DRAM BOM share shift from 2.5-3% to 6-7% were also reportedCITE:E12CITE:E13. By comparison, panel costs account for about 40-50% of a TV's total bill of materials, and panel prices turned upward in January 2026CITE:E4.
| Cost component | Share of TV BOM | Recent price trend |
|---|
| Panel | ~40-50%CITE:E4 | Turned upward in January 2026CITE:E4 |
| DRAM | 2.5-3% → 6-7%CITE:E6CITE:E13 | 4GB DDR4 up more than 4x in the past year; forecast +60% QoQ in Q1 2026CITE:E5CITE:E12 |
Can Mini LED TV Penetration and TCL's Position Offset the Broader Shipment Slowdown?
TrendForce raised its 2026 Mini LED TV penetration forecast to 10%, with shipments heading toward 20 million units, even as overall TV shipments are forecast to declineCITE:E7. Within that segment, TCL is positioned to hold Mini LED TV leadership with a market share that will exceed 30%, a record for the category, on the strength of its upstream-to-downstream materials and manufacturing integrationCITE:E8.
Taken together, the reported figures point to a bifurcated 2026: total global TV shipments are forecast to fall for a second consecutive year, from -0.8% in 2025 to a further-revised -0.6% in 2026CITE:E1CITE:E2, while DRAM's cost burden on every TV built has more than doubled as a share of BOM costCITE:E6. At the same time, the Mini LED segment — where TrendForce's 10% penetration and 20-million-unit forecast sit alongside TCL's projected 30%-plus shareCITE:E7CITE:E8 — is expanding even as the broader market contracts. The evidence does not indicate whether Mini LED's growth is sufficient to offset the volume lost elsewhere.