According to a report by Taiwan's Central News Agency (CNA), a discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 second stage is set to strike the Moon on August 5, with an impact CNA says is equivalent to roughly 3 tons of TNT. CNA estimates over 1,000,000 kg of ejected debris and a 20-to-30-meter crater, while the UK's Independent, as relayed by udn.com, puts the crater at about 27 meters wide and 5 meters deep.
When and Where Will the SpaceX Rocket Debris Hit the Moon?
According to CNA (cna.com.tw), a discarded rocket stage from SpaceX is scheduled to hit the Moon on August 5. CNA reports the precise moment as 2:34:32.9 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time on the 5th — 2:34:32.9 p.m. Taiwan time on the same day. The impact point is on the Moon's near side, in the western region close to the Einstein Crater, an area partially lit by the sun at the time, per CNA's report.
Which Rocket Stage Is Involved, and What Missions Did It Fly?
CNA identifies the object as the second stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The same stage previously carried two lunar landers into space: Firefly Aerospace's "Ghost-1" (Blue Ghost Mission 1) and ispace's "Resilience," flown under the Hakuto-R Mission 2 program. CNA reports the stage launched in January of last year, meaning it will have spent roughly a year and a half in space before the lunar impact.
How Did Astronomers Discover and Predict the Impact?
CNA reports that independent astronomer Bill Gray first identified the debris as being on a trajectory that would pass close to the Moon in September of last year. Gray, quoted by CNA, said the assessment changed by around March of this year: "this is going to happen, we just need to work out exactly when and where." That statement marks the shift from a projected near-miss to a confirmed direct impact, according to CNA's account.
How Powerful Will the Impact Be, and What Physical Effects Are Expected?
CNA reports the collision will occur at a speed of roughly 2.43 kilometers per second near the Einstein Crater. CNA describes the resulting force as equivalent to about 3 tons of TNT, capable of producing a momentary flash, throwing up more than 1,000,000 kg of debris, and leaving a crater 20 to 30 meters in diameter. Citing the UK's Independent, CNA (and its republication on udn.com) reports a more specific estimate: a crater roughly 27 meters in diameter and 5 meters deep, with lunar material thrown into space on impact.
| Metric | CNA estimate | Independent estimate (via CNA/udn.com) |
|---|
| Impact energy | ~3 tons of TNT equivalent | ~3 tons of TNT equivalent |
| Ejected debris | Over 1,000,000 kg | Not specified |
| Crater diameter | 20–30 meters | ~27 meters |
| Crater depth | Not specified | ~5 meters |
| Impact speed | ~2.43 km/s | Not specified |
Where Can the Impact Be Observed, and How Difficult Will That Be?
CNA reports the best viewing locations are central and eastern Canada, the United States, the Caribbean, and parts of South America, where the Moon will sit at a favorable viewing angle at the moment of impact. But CNA also quotes Ben Fernando, an astronomer at the U.S. Los Alamos National Laboratory, cautioning that visibility will be limited: "There are two things you could try to observe: the ejected dust plume, and the flash. Frankly, I think the flash will be harder to see, because the impact point is on the bright, sunlit side of the Moon, and the event is extremely brief."
What This Means
The two crater estimates CNA cites — its own 20-to-30-meter figure and the Independent's more specific 27-meter, 5-meter-deep figure, both republished via udn.com — sit within the same range rather than contradicting each other, suggesting convergence among the sources on the impact's rough scale. That scale, together with the tracking history CNA lays out (Gray's September flyby projection hardening into a confirmed impact by March), shows a roughly year-long process of narrowing an object first spotted as a near-miss into a precisely timed collision at 2:34:32.9 p.m. Taiwan time on August 5. Fernando's caution about the flash being hard to see, despite the debris plume and crater being well quantified, underscores a gap CNA's reporting leaves open: predicted physical effects on the Moon's surface are one thing, and what observers on Earth will actually be able to see is another.