Taiwan's stock index futures (台指期) broke through the 45,000-point level in the Aug. 8 night session, rising 736 points, or 1.66%, to close at 45,033, according to a CNA report. The move tracked a rebound on Wall Street the same day.
The overnight gain followed a volatile cash session. CNA reported that the TAIEX (台股) swung more than 880 points intraday on Friday, Aug. 7, before finishing at 44,225.91, down 170.79 points, or 0.38%, and slipping below its quarterly moving average of roughly 44,278. Zooming out to the full week, CNA noted the index had already added 1,106.16 points as it rebounded from a July correction — meaning the single-session Friday pullback came inside a week that was still net positive.
The Aug. 8 U.S. session that lifted Taiex futures showed broad-based gains, per CNA: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 151.83 points (0.28%) to 54,036.93; the S&P 500 gained 47.68 points (0.62%) to 7,757.64; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 342.27 points (1.3%) to 26,690.62. Chip stocks outperformed — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) jumped 308.096 points, or 2.56%, to 12,356.789. CNA also reported that TSMC's (台積電) U.S.-listed ADR rose 0.44%, which the report said was seen as favorable for Monday's TAIEX open.
| Index | Change | % Change | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiex futures (night session, Aug. 8) | +736 pts | +1.66% | 45,033 |
| TAIEX (Aug. 7 close) | -170.79 pts | -0.38% | 44,225.91 |
| TAIEX (week of Aug. 3–7) | +1,106.16 pts | — | — |
| Dow Jones (Aug. 8) | +151.83 pts | +0.28% | 54,036.93 |
| S&P 500 (Aug. 8) | +47.68 pts | +0.62% | 7,757.64 |
| Nasdaq (Aug. 8) | +342.27 pts | +1.3% | 26,690.62 |
| PHLX Semiconductor Index (Aug. 8) | +308.096 pts | +2.56% | 12,356.789 |
| TSMC ADR (Aug. 8) | — | +0.44% | — |
Two separate historical models cited by Chen Yi-kuang of Fubon Securities Investment Consulting, per CNA, point toward a similar window later this year. First, Taiwan's business cycle indicator (景氣對策信號燈) turned from yellow-red to red in December 2025; Chen said that, based on past cycles, the TAIEX has historically peaked an average of nine months after such a transition — placing the projected window around the end of September 2026. Second, CNA reported that the TAIEX set a record turnover of NT$1.91 trillion on May 29, and that historically, markets have peaked roughly 3.8 months after a record-volume day — also landing around late September to early October 2026.
Separately, CNA reported that the U.S. Aug. 8 rally itself was linked to macro data released that day: the July U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected decrease in employment, well below analysts' expectations for steady job growth. The report said the U.S. dollar weakened notably on the data and that it also lowered the perceived risk of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.
On the futures positioning side, Chen told CNA that foreign institutional investors currently hold roughly 89,000 short contracts in Taiex futures, while investment trusts and dealers together hold a combined long position of roughly 89,000 contracts — positions Chen described as effectively offsetting each other.
Looking ahead, a SETN report said the market's attention this week will center on TSMC's monthly revenue release, Largan's (大立光) ex-dividend date, and earnings calls (法人說明會) from Foxconn (鴻海), ASUS (華碩), and Pegatron (和碩).
The pieces of evidence line up around the same window without contradicting each other: the overnight futures pop to 45,033 was driven by a U.S. session in which weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data pushed the dollar down and eased Fed rate-hike concerns, per CNA — helping fuel gains across the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and especially the chip-heavy SOX. Further out, two independently derived historical models cited in the same CNA report — one based on the December 2025 signal-light shift, the other on the May 29 record-turnover day — both point to a possible TAIEX peak clustering around late September to early October 2026. In the futures market itself, CNA's sourcing shows foreign short positions of about 89,000 contracts are currently matched almost one-for-one by local institutional and dealer long positions of a similar size, suggesting no clear one-sided positioning bias heading into a week when the TAIEX will also digest TSMC's monthly revenue, Largan's ex-dividend, and three major earnings calls.
According to CNA, Taiex futures rose 736 points, or 1.66%, to close at 45,033, tracking an Aug. 8 Wall Street rebound in which the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) all posted gains.
Per CNA, Chen Yi-kuang of Fubon Securities Investment Consulting cited two models: the business cycle signal light turning red in December 2025 (pointing to roughly late September 2026, based on a historical nine-month lag), and the May 29 record turnover of NT$1.91 trillion (pointing to roughly late September to early October 2026, based on a historical 3.8-month lag).
SETN reported the market will focus on TSMC's monthly revenue release, Largan's ex-dividend date, and earnings calls from Foxconn, ASUS, and Pegatron.
According to TechNews and CNA, Winbond Electronics (華邦電) GM Chen Pei-ming warned on August 6, 2026 that 2027 memory shortages will exceed 2026's. CMS revenue rose 78% and Flash revenue rose 65% quarter-over-quarter, backed by NT$39.5 billion in 2026 capex, up over 70-fold year-on-year.
According to Technews, MoneyDJ, and CTEE reports dated August 6, 2026, TSMC (台積電) is holding roughly $1 billion (about NT$32 billion) worth of Apple (蘋果) A20 Pro processors that cannot complete back-end packaging because of a DRAM shortage. TSMC's CFO had already flagged rising inventory days on July 16, and Apple sources memory mainly from Micron, plus SK Hynix and Samsung.
According to Technews, also reported by CNA and ETtoday, the US FCC is drafting a measure to ban imports of new Chinese-made optical transceivers, with officials hoping to finalize it this year, though it could still be revised or shelved. The news drove same-day share drops of 7.27% for Innolight (中際旭創) and 5.29% for Eoptolink (新易盛), while Beijing's foreign ministry called the move protectionist.