Former Intel (英特爾) CEO Pat Gelsinger warned in a recent interview that if China were to fully cut off Taiwan's energy supply, the resulting shock to the global economy "would be worse than the Great Depression" (E1). The same warning and quote were carried in near-identical form by both CNA (cna.com.tw) on July 19, 2026 (E1) and TechNews (technews.tw) on July 20, 2026 (E7), indicating the remarks circulated across at least two independent news domains before drawing an official response.
Responding to Gelsinger's warning, Taiwan's MOEA said the island has never experienced a full-scale semiconductor supply chain disruption, and that during past global chip shortages, Taiwan's industry accelerated supply rather than falling short — evidence, the ministry said, of "sufficient response capacity" in both supply chain security and energy stability (E2, reported by both CNA and TechNews as E8). MOEA backed this claim with a specific operational record: since the 921 earthquake in 1999, Taiwan has weathered 25 years of strong earthquakes and typhoons — including the April 3, 2024 (0403) Hualien earthquake — with semiconductor plants almost never shut down for more than 1 day (E3, CNA).
On grid stability, MOEA pointed to Taipower's 2025 full-year performance: the reserve margin stayed at or above 6% every day of the year, and margins exceeded 10% — the threshold Taipower defines as a "green light" for ample supply — on 342 days (E4, and repeated via TechNews as E9). Looking ahead, MOEA's own working estimate puts average annual electricity demand growth at approximately 2.5% for the 2026–2035 period (E5, CNA) — a forward-looking figure that sits alongside, but is distinct from, the 2025 track record cited above.
MOEA also addressed reserve stockpiles directly, stating that domestic oil and gas safety stocks currently exceed the legally required standard, with supply described as sufficient. The ministry said its energy emergency response team is tracking the Middle East situation amid the US-Iran conflict, that oil and gas supply remains adequate, and that specific procurement and contingency plans are already in place for winter demand (E6, CNA).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 reserve margin, full year | ≥6% | Taipower, via MOEA (E4/E9) |
| 2025 days with reserve margin >10% ("green light") | 342 days | Taipower, via MOEA (E4/E9) |
| Projected average annual electricity demand growth, 2026–2035 | ~2.5% | MOEA (E5) |
| Years since the 921 earthquake without a semiconductor plant shutdown exceeding 1 day | 25 years (since 1999) | MOEA (E3) |
MOEA's rebuttal to Gelsinger rests on evidence from two different time frames: a 25-year historical record of semiconductor plants surviving earthquakes and typhoons without extended shutdowns (E3), and a single recent data point — the 2025 reserve margin staying above 6% with 342 green-light days (E4/E9). Both are backward-looking. The one forward-looking figure in the evidence, MOEA's own ~2.5% average annual demand growth estimate for 2026–2035 (E5), describes a decade of rising electricity demand that the cited historical resilience record does not, by itself, speak to. Meanwhile, the reserve stockpile assurances on oil and gas (E6) and the supply chain track record (E2/E8) address different risk categories — fuel reserves versus chip production continuity — that MOEA presented together as a combined case against Gelsinger's warning, even though the underlying evidence for each rests on separate data.
According to Taiwan's MOEA, as reported by both CNA and TechNews, Taiwan has never experienced a full-scale semiconductor supply chain disruption; during past global chip shortages, its industry instead accelerated supply.
According to CNA, MOEA said domestic oil and gas safety stocks are above the legally required standard, with specific procurement and contingency plans in place for winter demand and the US-Iran conflict situation.
According to CNA and TechNews, Taipower's reserve margin stayed at or above 6% throughout 2025, with margins exceeding 10% ("green light" status) on 342 days of the year.
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