According to Liberty Times (自由時報) and United Daily News (UDN), US imports from Taiwan almost doubled to $201 billion in 2025 from $116 billion in 2024, making Taiwan the US's third-largest import source by May 2026. With Taiwan supplying roughly 90% of the world's advanced AI chips, economist Reza Hasmath warns the near-$200 billion US trade surplus could push President Trump to renegotiate the bilateral trade deal.
Why Did Taiwan's Exports to the US Surge?
US imports from Taiwan reached $201 billion in 2025, almost double the $116 billion recorded in 2024, according to Liberty Times (自由時報)(E4). United Daily News (UDN) reports the same trajectory, adding that by May 2026 Taiwan had overtaken China to become the United States' third-largest import source, trailing only Mexico and Canada (E14). Liberty Times independently confirms the May 2026 ranking shift (E5).
| Period | US Imports from Taiwan | Source |
|---|
| 2024 | $116 billion | Liberty Times (E4), UDN (E14) |
| 2025 | $201 billion | Liberty Times (E4), UDN (E14) |
| May 2026 | Ranked 3rd, behind Mexico and Canada | Liberty Times (E5), UDN (E14) |
How Does Taiwan Dominate the Global AI Chip Supply?
Liberty Times reports that Taiwan produces about 90% of the world's advanced AI chips, a position it says keeps the US and global markets highly dependent on Taiwan (E6). UDN's reporting puts the same figure at roughly 90% of the high-end chips needed for the most advanced AI models, noting that global demand "will not disappear in the short term" (E13).
What Preferential Terms Did the Trump Administration Extend to Taiwan?
President Trump has claimed his second term attracted more than $2.7 trillion in tech and AI investment, and that the US reached an agreement under which Taiwan would invest $500 billion in the United States, according to Liberty Times (E7). Under the accompanying trade terms, Taiwan-based firms can import products equivalent to 2.5 times their US plant capacity without facing high tariffs, and Taiwan agreed to cut tariffs on 99% of US goods, per Liberty Times (E8). UDN corroborates both the 2.5-times import allowance and the 99% tariff reduction (E15).
| Term | Detail | Source |
|---|
| Taiwan's pledged US investment | $500 billion | Liberty Times (E7) |
| Trump's claimed total 2nd-term tech/AI investment | $2.7 trillion | Liberty Times (E7) |
| Tariff-free import allowance for Taiwan firms | Up to 2.5x US plant capacity | Liberty Times (E8), UDN (E15) |
| Taiwan's tariff cut on US goods | 99% | Liberty Times (E8), UDN (E15) |
Why Is the Growing Surplus Becoming Trump's Leverage for Renegotiation?
Liberty Times reports Taiwan's trade surplus with the US has climbed to nearly $200 billion, and cites warnings that Trump "will not tolerate a massive trade surplus indefinitely" and may demand a renegotiated deal with Taiwan (E3). UDN quotes economist Reza Hasmath directly: "It currently looks like a win-win between Taiwan and the US, but Taiwan is merely postponing an unsustainable reality," adding that Trump could soon seek to renegotiate the trade agreement (E11).
What Structural Risks Does Taiwan's Economy Face?
According to Liberty Times, Taiwan's semiconductor industry employs only about 350,000 people, yet TSMC (台積電) alone accounts for roughly 40% of Taiwan's stock market capitalization and contributes about 4 percentage points of national GDP growth (E9). UDN reports the identical figures — about 350,000 jobs, ~40% of market cap, and a 4-percentage-point GDP contribution from TSMC (E16). Both outlets also flag demographic and resource pressures: Liberty Times notes roughly one-fifth of Taiwan's population is already over 65, alongside heavy reliance on imported energy and water shortages (E10), a point UDN repeats, adding that Taiwan is particularly dependent on imported oil (E17).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|
| Semiconductor industry employment | ~350,000 | Liberty Times (E9), UDN (E16) |
| TSMC share of Taiwan stock market cap | ~40% | Liberty Times (E9), UDN (E16) |
| TSMC contribution to GDP growth | ~4 percentage points | Liberty Times (E9), UDN (E16) |
| Population aged 65 or older | ~1/5 | Liberty Times (E10), UDN (E17) |
Can Taiwan's Growth Momentum Withstand Trade Risks?
Taiwan's GDP growth has accelerated alongside the export boom. Liberty Times reports year-on-year GDP growth of 13.69% in the first quarter of 2026, easing only slightly to 12.92% in the second quarter (E1, E2). UDN frames the same numbers within a longer run, reporting 8.63% GDP growth for full-year 2025, followed by 13.69% in Q1 2026 and 12.92% in Q2 2026, and attributes the acceleration to export strength driven by the AI boom (E12).
| Period | Taiwan GDP YoY Growth | Source |
|---|
| 2025 (full year) | 8.63% | UDN (E12) |
| 2026 Q1 | 13.69% | Liberty Times (E1), UDN (E12) |
| 2026 Q2 | 12.92% | Liberty Times (E2), UDN (E12) |
What This Means
The evidence cited above points to a single relationship carrying two opposite readings. The same near-$200 billion surplus that Hasmath calls an "unsustainable reality" (E11) is generated by the 90% share of advanced AI chip production that also gives Taiwan its negotiating leverage (E6, E13). That leverage sits on an industry employing only about 350,000 people out of Taiwan's population, even as TSMC alone drives roughly 40% of stock market value and 4 percentage points of GDP growth (E9, E16) — concentration that coincides with a population where one-fifth is already over 65 (E10, E17). Meanwhile, headline growth of 13.69% and 12.92% in the first two quarters of 2026 (E1, E2, E12) is running in parallel with the surplus growth that both outlets report as the trigger for possible renegotiation (E3, E11) — the same export strength cited as an economic success is also the specific figure economists point to as the risk.