AIBRIEF

TrendForce: 2026 Capex at Nine Major CSPs Set to Jump ~90% as AI Server Shipment Growth Forecast Raised to Near 31%

林紀旭 James LinEditor-in-Chief
Published · Updated
According to TrendForce data cited by CNA and UDN, nine major cloud service providers' (CSP) 2026 capital expenditure is projected to rise about 90% to over $886.7 billion, while TrendForce raised its 2026 AI server shipment growth forecast from 28% to near 31%, citing stronger demand for NVIDIA rack-scale AI systems.

Why is 2026 CSP capex forecast to jump about 90%?

TrendForce (集邦科技) estimates that combined 2026 capital expenditure across nine major cloud service providers (CSP) will grow roughly 90% year over year, according to a Central News Agency (CNA) report. The same figure was reported by UDN (money.udn.com), which cited TrendForce's estimate that "the total capital expenditure of the world's nine major CSPs will grow about 90% year over year in 2026."

In dollar terms, TrendForce puts combined 2026 spending by Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, ByteDance (字節跳動), Tencent (騰訊), Alibaba (阿里巴巴), and Baidu (百度) at more than $886.7 billion, a figure confirmed in both the CNA and UDN write-ups.

Why did TrendForce raise its AI server shipment growth forecast to near 31%?

TrendForce revised its 2026 AI server shipment growth forecast upward, from an original estimate of 28% to near 31%, according to both the CNA report and the UDN report. Both outlets carried the identical TrendForce line: "the original 2026 AI server shipment growth forecast of 28% has been updated to nearly 31%."

What's driving the higher AI server shipment forecast?

Per the CNA report, TrendForce attributed the upward revision to several factors converging in the same window. Hyperscale cloud service providers and tier-2 data center operators have shown markedly higher purchase intent for NVIDIA's (輝達) rack-scale AI server platforms, specifically the Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems. At the same time, Google's and Amazon Web Services' (AWS) next-generation application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) platforms are set to ramp in volume through the second half of 2026. TrendForce also pointed to Chinese vendors expanding adoption of local AI solutions to meet cloud-based large language model (LLM) demand.

How dominant are North America's top five cloud providers?

According to the CNA report, North America's five largest cloud service providers together account for close to 90% of total CSP capital expenditure, and each of the five has seen its individual capex mostly double. TrendForce linked this to continued buildout of AI data centers, GPU clusters, and liquid cooling infrastructure at these firms.

What does TrendForce expect for 2027?

Looking ahead, TrendForce forecasts that combined capital expenditure across the nine major CSPs will expand to around $1.3 trillion in 2027, with year-over-year growth converging to near 50%. Both the CNA and UDN reports carried TrendForce's explanation that the slower growth rate mainly reflects a high base effect from 2026 spending, "not a slowdown in AI investment."

Metric20262027
9-CSP total capex>$886.7 billion~$1.3 trillion
YoY capex growth~90%~50% (high-base effect)
AI server shipment growth~31% (revised up from 28%)
North America top-5 capex share~90%

What this means

The figures TrendForce reported point to a two-part story rather than a single trend. On one side, the ~90% capex growth and the AI server shipment forecast being revised up from 28% to near 31% both describe an acceleration within 2026 itself, tied to specific triggers TrendForce named: rising uptake of NVIDIA's Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin rack-scale systems, the H2 2026 ramp of Google's and AWS's in-house ASIC platforms, and expanding Chinese local AI deployment. On the other side, TrendForce's own 2027 numbers show growth decelerating from ~90% to ~50% even as absolute spending keeps rising, from over $886.7 billion to around $1.3 trillion — and TrendForce explicitly frames that deceleration as a base-effect artifact rather than waning AI investment. The concentration data adds a geographic dimension to the same trend: with North America's top five providers holding close to 90% of total CSP capex and each roughly doubling its own spending, the capex and shipment growth TrendForce describes is disproportionately anchored in a small number of North American buyers.

📊 Evidence

FAQ

By how much did TrendForce raise its 2026 AI server shipment growth forecast?

TrendForce revised its 2026 AI server shipment growth estimate from 28% to near 31%, according to both CNA and UDN reports citing TrendForce.

What is TrendForce's capex forecast for the nine major CSPs in 2027?

TrendForce forecasts combined 2027 capital expenditure across the nine major CSPs will reach around $1.3 trillion, with year-over-year growth converging to near 50%, which TrendForce attributes to a high base effect rather than a slowdown in AI investment.

What share of CSP capex do North America's top five cloud providers hold?

According to the CNA report citing TrendForce, North America's five largest cloud service providers together account for close to 90% of total CSP capital expenditure, with each provider's individual capex mostly doubling.

📎 Sources

  1. cna.com.tw
  2. money.udn.com
林紀旭 James LinEditor-in-Chief

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