DRAM has moved from a first-quarter 2025 revenue contraction to a forecast Q1 2026 price surge, according to TrendForce.
Global DRAM industry revenue reached $27.01 billion in Q1 2025, a 5.5% quarter-on-quarter decline driven by falling contract prices for conventional DRAM and a contraction in HBM shipment volumesCITE:E1. TrendForce now forecasts that conventional DRAM contract prices will rise 55-60% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, with server DRAM prices projected to surge more than 60% quarter-on-quarterCITE:E2. The gap between a mid-single-digit quarterly decline and a projected double-digit-to-60%-plus surge within roughly a year marks a departure from DRAM's historical pattern of sharp corrections following sharp run-ups.
AI chip shipments are the primary driver behind HBM's demand surge, TrendForce says.
TrendForce projects that AI chip shipments in 2025 alone will boost HBM demand by more than 130%, and that HBM usage will keep rising in 2026, still exceeding 70% annual growthCITE:E3. Even as the growth rate is projected to moderate from triple digits to a still-elevated 70%-plus pace, HBM remains the single demand line TrendForce ties directly to AI chip shipment volume.
Three suppliers — Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron — controlled roughly 90.5% of the global DRAM market in Q4 2025, and all three are prioritizing advanced-process capacity for server DRAM and HBM over other segments.
| Supplier | Q4 2025 Revenue | QoQ Change | DRAM Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung | $19.30 billion | +43% | 36% (+3.4 pp) |
| SK hynix | $17.22 billion | — | 32.1% |
| Micron | $11.98 billion | — | 22.4% |
Samsung's Q4 2025 revenue climbed to $19.30 billion, up 43% quarter-on-quarter, lifting its market share by 3.4 percentage points to 36% and returning it to the top spot; SK hynix posted revenue of $17.22 billion for a 32.1% share, and Micron reported revenue of $11.98 billion for a 22.4% share, together totaling about 90.5% of the marketCITE:E4. TrendForce reports that the three major DRAM suppliers continue to allocate advanced-process capacity primarily to high-end server DRAM and HBM, crowding out capacity for PC, mobile, and consumer applicationsCITE:E5.
TrendForce forecasts DRAM capital expenditure will rise to $61.3 billion in 2026, up about 14% year-on-year, with spending directed at process upgrades rather than new capacity.
TrendForce's 2026 DRAM capital expenditure forecast of $61.3 billion, representing roughly 14% year-on-year growth, is described as concentrated on process upgrades and hybrid bonding rather than capacity expansionCITE:E6. That spending pattern — more capital, but aimed at upgrading existing lines instead of adding bit output — is the mechanism TrendForce cites for limiting new DRAM supply growth even as spending rises.
SK hynix's record full-year 2025 results confirm the supercycle, with HBM revenue more than doubling year-on-year.
SK hynix reported full-year 2025 revenue of 97.1467 trillion won and operating profit of 47.2063 trillion won, an operating margin of 49%, while HBM revenue within its DRAM segment more than doubled year-on-yearCITE:E7.
Taken together, the chain is traceable through the evidence itself: DRAM revenue contracted 5.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025CITE:E1, yet TrendForce now forecasts a 55-60% quarter-on-quarter price rebound for Q1 2026CITE:E2, driven by HBM demand TrendForce projects will grow more than 130% in 2025 and still exceed 70% in 2026CITE:E3. That demand is met by a market where three suppliers hold 90.5% combined shareCITE:E4 and direct advanced-process capacity toward server DRAM and HBM at the expense of other segmentsCITE:E5, while 2026 capital spending of $61.3 billion (+14% year-on-year) is aimed at process upgrades rather than expanding outputCITE:E6. The financial outcome of that structure is already visible in SK hynix's 49% operating margin and more-than-doubled HBM revenueCITE:E7 — a sharp reversal from the revenue contraction DRAM posted just quarters earlierCITE:E1.
DRAM has moved from a first-quarter 2025 revenue contraction to a forecast Q1 2026 price surge, according to TrendForce.
AI chip shipments are the primary driver behind HBM's demand surge, TrendForce says.
Three suppliers — Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron — controlled roughly 90.
TrendForce forecasts DRAM capital expenditure will rise to $61.
The shift from a 5.5% quarterly revenue decline to a forecast 55-60% price surge within roughly a year is unusual for a commodity segment, but the mechanism behind it looks structural rather than speculative: three suppliers controlling 90.5% of the market are directing capital toward process upgrades and HBM rather than new capacity, even as capital expenditure rises 14% to $61.3 billion. That combination of concentrated supply and disciplined investment is why SK hynix could post a 49% operating margin with HBM revenue more than doubling, instead of reinvesting the windfall into expansion that would erode pricing power. The figure worth watching next is whether the projected 60%-plus server DRAM price surge for Q1 2026 actually materializes as forecast, or whether it moderates in line with HBM demand growth cooling from 130%-plus in 2025 to 70%-plus in 2026.
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